Lake Mead is drying up

From Mark Frauenfelder in Good. I wish he provided links to some data…

  

State water supply vulnerable to quakes, floods

Another California water worry–earthquakes that could undo the flow of fresh water through the delta to the California Water Project–which takes water to agriculture and LA. Big worry, and question of how government invests in protection against potential but catastrophic loss.

California drought update

DWR has a great website on California drought conditions.

South Fork of Lake Oroville, February 2009. More drought photos.

California also depends a lot on Colorado River water, and fortunately Lake Powell is having a good year:

Water scarcity ‘now bigger threat than financial crisis’

From The Independent :

“Humanity is facing “water bankruptcy” as a result of a crisis even greater than the financial meltdown now destabilising the global economy, two authoritative new reports show. They add that it is already beginning to take effect, and there will be no way of bailing the earth out of water scarcity.

The two reports – one by the world’s foremost international economic forum and the other by 24 United Nations agencies – presage the opening tomorrow of the most important conference on the looming crisis for three years. The World Water Forum, which will be attended by 20,000 people in Istanbul, will hear stark warnings of how half the world’s population will be affected by water shortages in just 20 years’ time, with millions dying and increasing conflicts over dwindling resources. (…)

Water use has been growing far faster than the number of people. During the 20th century the world population increased fourfold, but the amount of freshwater that it used increased nine times over. Already 2.8 billion people live in areas of high water stress, the report calculates, and this will rise to 3.9 billion – more than half the expected population of the world – by 2030. By that time, water scarcity could cut world harvests by 30 per cent – equivalent to all the grain grown in the US and India – even as human numbers and appetites increase.

Some 60 per cent of China’s 669 cities are already short of water. The huge Yellow River is now left with only 10 per cent of its natural flow, sometimes failing to reach the sea altogether. And the glaciers of the Himalayas, which act as gigantic water banks supplying two billion people in Asia, are melting ever faster as global warming accelerates. Meanwhile devastating droughts are crippling Australia and Texas.”

At the World Water Forum, going on now, China reports a serious water shortage in Hebei Province, which supplies Beijing.

Link to the UN World Water Assessment Program, and the Water in a Changing World report.

Link to the World Economic Forum Water Initiative report.

Energy, water and oil shale

From the WSJ:

Oil, Water Are Volatile Mix in West

Energy Firms Buying River Rights Add to Competition for Scarce Resource

by STEPHANIE SIMON

DENVER — Oil companies have gained control over billions of gallons of water from Western rivers in preparation for future efforts to extract oil from shale deposits under the Rocky Mountains, according to a new report by an environmental group that opposes such projects.

The group, Western Resource Advocates, used public records to conclude that energy companies are collectively entitled to divert more than 6.5 billion gallons of water a day during peak river flows. The companies also hold rights to store, in dozens of reservoirs, 1.7 million acre feet of water, enough to supply metro Denver for six years.

Industry representatives said they have substantial holdings of water rights for future use in producing oil from shale, though they could not confirm the precise numbers in the report.

Before any move into full-scale oil shale production, the energy industry plans a close study of water issues, including the impact its operations would have on ranchers, farmers and communities that all rely on the same limited sources of water, said Richard Ranger, a senior policy adviser for the American Petroleum Institute. “It’s among the most important questions to be examined,” he said. (more…).

US drought monitor

As the California drought worsens, here is another map that we’ll be watching…

Water cutbacks in California

The state Department of Water Resources predicts it will only deliver 15 percent of contracted water to Bay Area water districts in 2009 (SF Chronicle):

Time to start planting those native plants.

Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate

The US Climate Change Science Program has a new report on on extreme climate change. Nothing new to those who read the daily weather reports:
- more frequent and intense downpours, and higher proportion of total rainfall in heavy precipitation events (hello Iowa…)
- Increase in area affected by drought.
- fewer cold days and nights
- hotter and more frequent hot days and spells
- more frequent heat waves
- more intense hurricanes.

Drought stories: no rain in Spain…

…is a pain. From Time magazine.

Drought and food

From the NYT (“A Drought in Australia, a Global Shortage of Rice”):

(…) The collapse of Australia’s rice production is one of several factors contributing to a doubling of rice prices in the last three months — increases that have led the world’s largest exporters to restrict exports severely, spurred panicked hoarding in Hong Kong and the Philippines, and set off violent protests in countries including Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Haiti, Indonesia, Italy, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, the Philippines, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Yemen.

Drought affects every agricultural industry based here, not just rice — from sheepherding, the other mainstay in this dusty land, to the cultivation of wine grapes, the fastest-growing crop here, with that expansion often coming at the expense of rice.

The drought’s effect on rice has produced the greatest impact on the rest of the world, so far. It is one factor contributing to skyrocketing prices, and many scientists believe it is among the earliest signs that a warming planet is starting to affect food production. (…)

Drought has already spurred significant changes in Australia’s agricultural heartland. Some farmers are abandoning rice, which requires large amounts of water, to plant less water-intensive crops like wheat or, especially here in southeastern Australia, wine grapes. Other rice farmers have sold fields or water rights, usually to grape growers.

Scientists and economists worry that the reallocation of scarce water resources — away from rice and other grains and toward more lucrative crops and livestock — threatens poor countries that import rice as a dietary staple. (…)

Spain withers in drought

Via WSJ:

MADRID — Spain is wilting under the severest drought in six decades, forcing farmers in Europe’s citrus grove to cut forecasts for this year’s harvest and compromising power generation as reservoirs dry up.

“Our farmers are looking skyward every day waiting for rain. The situation is severe and could deteriorate soon,” said Stephan Roetzer, the chief executive of SanLucar Fruit SL in Valencia, a fruit producer. (…)

Spain’s State Meteorological Agency, or AEMET, this week said it has recorded 40% less rainfall than usual since Oct. 1. Authorities call it the driest period since the 1940s. Portugal and Morocco have been similarly afflicted. (…)

Spain’s northeastern region of Catalonia, whose capital is Barcelona, became the first in Spain to impose water restrictions this year when in February it prohibited the use of drinkable water for washing cars or filling swimming pools. Authorities there have arranged to bring water to Barcelona by boat from Marseilles as well a couple of nearby Spanish cities to relieve the shortage. Catalonia reservoir levels are at about 22% capacity. If they fall below 20% additional restrictions could be put in place. (…)

Power costs could rise, too. Spanish power producers are troubled by shrinking reservoirs and dry riverbeds. Hydroelectric power dams are running below their capacity, putting further upside pressure to already high energy costs.

Bankinter SA analyst David Garcia Moral in Madrid expects generation costs to soar to a range of between €60 ($94.25) to €65 a megawatt hour in 2008 from an average of €39.21 last year as a result of the low stages.

What happens when the west runs out of water?

From Scripps Oceanographic Institute:

There is a 50 percent chance Lake Mead, a key source of water for millions of people in the southwestern United States, will be dry by 2021 if climate changes as expected and future water usage is not curtailed, according to a pair of researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego.

Without Lake Mead and neighboring Lake Powell, the Colorado River system has no buffer to sustain the population of the Southwest through an unusually dry year, or worse, a sustained drought. In such an event, water deliveries would become highly unstable and variable, said research marine physicist Tim Barnett and climate scientist David Pierce.
(…)

This is a mind-boggling story. Even more amazing, it came out two weeks ago, and then disappeared from news coverage. Another example of ignoring pending disaster.

UPDATE: Historical data on Lake Mead elevations. The big dip in 1965 is the filling of Lake Powell upstream from Lake Mead.  Of course it’s a mistake to extrapolate recent trends, but the drought since 2000 must be worrisome to people in the Southwest.  The wet year in 2008 doesn’t make a dent.  The other question I’m interested in is inflows the the dams on the lower Colorado River, and deliveries that are obligated to the various customers (cities and farmers) in California and Arizona. 

Water Wars, part 2

As bizarre as it sounds, people in Michigan and Illinois are worried that their neighbors want to take their water…

Growing thirst threatens a Great Lakes water war:
Lawmakers battle to protect the region’s key resource
Jim Lynch / The Detroit News

As drought-plagued states cast a jealous eye toward Michigan’s abundant supply of freshwater, local lawmakers are scrambling — unsuccessfully so far — to fend off efforts to siphon from the Great Lakes.
A regional effort to enact legislation giving the eight Great Lakes states more control over water diversion is languishing in several states, with only two — Minnesota and Illinois — giving full approval so far.
Committees in both the Michigan House and Senate have passed versions of the compact, and officials hope a unified version will be on the governor’s desk before the end of January.
But delays in legal protection for the Great Lakes states could prove costly, especially as the waterways sink to all-time lows set in 1965.
Among the recent threats:
• In October, Democratic presidential candidate Bill Richardson of New Mexico created an uproar when he described Wisconsin as being “awash in water” and called for a “national water policy.” He later softened his remarks, but the comment triggered a national debate that cast more scrutiny on the Great Lakes.
• A Georgia congressman has proposed a national water commission that would put the federal government in charge of Great Lakes water, an idea that Michigan lawmakers oppose.
• Experts say the 2010 U.S. census recalculation could shift political power out of some of the Midwest states such as Michigan to water-hungry states in the South and West, making it harder for the Great Lakes to keep its water here.
It’s a scenario that worries some Michigan residents.
“I don’t think we ought to be sending our water to anybody,” said Paul Sapp, a 72-year-old Mecosta resident who said he’s seen local water levels drop due to withdrawals from the Muskegon River for a bottled water plant. “They all moved down (to the Southeast and Southwest) to stay warm. If they’re thirsty, they can move back.” (…)

Of course water wars are old news; as Twain famously said, “whiskey’s for drinkin’, water’s for fightin’ over.” But these are signs of new tensions over water from population growth and increasing tendency to drought. It raises questions about future trends and consequences of changing precipitation patterns from climate change, opportunities to conserve water, and need for regional water management policy in an increasingly constrained Water World.

UPDATE: From Science Progress, a little more detail on the story:

(…)The Great Lakes contain 18 percent of the planet’s fresh water, but with several lakes already below their long-term averages, natural resource policy makers in the region are eager to protect the water before proposals that would grant control to the Federal government gain traction. One such proposal from Rep. John Linder (R-GA) would create a national water commission. Concern that the 2010 census count may reduce the congressional delegation from lake states and increase the number of representatives in states experiencing drought conditions adds urgency to those pushing the Compact.(…)

Water Wars

New news trend: conflicts between states and regions over water supply. The west has known this for years, but as droughts spreads they show up in unexpected places:

Kansas Threatens to Sue Nebraska Over Use of a River

TOPEKA, Kan. (AP) — Kansas threatened a court fight Wednesday unless Nebraska reduced the amount of water it took from the Republican River and paid an undetermined amount for allegedly taking too much water in the past.

Kansas contends that Nebraska’s water use has exceeded what it was allowed under an interstate agreement for the years 2005 and 2006 by about 27 billion gallons, enough to supply a city of 100,000 people for 10 years. (…)

Alabama Senator Blocks Water Manual Update

WASHINGTON (AP) — Georgia lawmakers are blasting Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama for slipping language into a massive end-of-year spending bill, blocking the federal government from updating the manuals that guide water-sharing in the region.
Alabama Senator Blocks Water Manual Update

Georgia lawmakers have for years argued that the Army Corps of Engineers plans are outdated and do not reflect their state’s rapid growth. Alabama officials, meanwhile, have fought any updates until the parties can agree on an underlying sharing formula. (…)

More news like this to come…

Drought: China and Atlanta

I’m starting new categories for two of the major climate anomalies to watch: drought and flood. Here is a report of the drought in China:

Autumn rain down 90 percent in China rice belt (Reuters)

BEIJING (Reuters) – Large areas of south China are suffering from serious drought, with water levels on two major rivers in rice-growing provinces dropping to historic lows, state media said on Tuesday.

Rainfall since the beginning of October had dropped by 90 percent in Jiangxi and 86 percent in neighboring Hunan, the country’s largest rice-growing province, from average figures, Xinhua news agency said.

Rice is a staple for most Chinese and a crop which needs a constant supply of water

The Gan and Xiang rivers running through the two provinces had seen their lowest water levels in history, Xinhua said. The shallow water has caused a jam of barges in some sections of the Gan.

Authorities had rushed to ensure drinking water supplies in big cities along the rivers and irrigation of fields by diverting water from reservoirs and installing pumps, Xinhua said. (…)

The drought in the Atlanta region has been widely reported, but the social network that has grown around it is especially interesting: The

- Atlanta water shortage blog, and the related
- Atanta water shortage wiki.

On one hand its encouraging to see how internet information sources can spread information on water data (“how much is there”) and what to do to save water, but it’s also an indication of how close to the edge we are living (i.e., watching Lake Lanier go up and down by hundredths of an inch per day).

Other related audio news today: Peter Gleick on NPR’s Fresh Air talking about water issues.